"My luck is going to turn," "A win is coming," or "I am on a hot streak," are all statements that speak to an over-confidence in one's ability to predict functionally random events. Some examples of this phenomenon can easily be seen in the language of gamblers. One explanation is that gamblers poorly judge the actual probability of winning, even as their pile of tokens and coins dwindles before them. So what encourages gambling behavior if losing occurs more frequently, and payouts do not exceed buy-ins? Yet gambling appears to operate differently players play faster after losses and bet persistently regardless of the percentage of payback, magnitude of return, or the lack of winning entirely. Following this logic, one would expect a gambler to only play as long as they are winning and then cut their losses when they begin to lose. We repeat jokes that people laughed at, choose jobs that we enjoy and that pay the most money, and avoid behaviors that produce fines. It's far less easy to understand why so many Americans enjoy gambling even though it tends to result in the loss of money.Īs a general rule, we tend to repeat behavior that produces desirable results and avoid behaviors that result in loss.
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